Editor’s note: As Emmys season rolls along, IndieWire will update this page with in-depth Emmy predictions from Awards Editor Marcus Jones. In addition to predictions for several key categories, there will be reporting on what shows are playing well with voters, TV Academy rules changes, interviews with potential nominees, and more.
With more distance from the 2026 Primetime Emmy nominations announcement, the biggest miscalculation I made was overestimating the popularity of HBO shows, and therefore underestimating how popular some of the new Apple TV shows were with voters in the Television Academy.
It is still hard to discount the HBO Max series “Hacks” as a frontrunner in Comedy. It literally broke the record for most nominations for a single season of a comedy series, with 24. But Apple TV series “Widow’s Bay” getting 19 nominations after having only premiered about a month and a half before voting, with the last three episodes of its inaugural season not even being eligible, is nothing to shake at.
Unlike with the Drama categories, which I will get to, Apple TV has a real stronghold with voters deciding what comedies to award. It famously took “Hacks” until its third season to finally win the Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy because Apple TV’s blockbuster series “Ted Lasso” kept getting in the way. It also took until Season 4 for “Hacks” star Hannah Einbinder to win Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series.
“Hacks” is primarily a star vehicle for Jean Smart in the eyes of Emmy voters, and there are no female leads on “Widow’s Bay,” so the seven-time Emmy winner will more than likely become the first woman to win Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series for the entire run of her show, but TV Academy members tend to favor a breakout over an established name, so “Widow’s Bay” discovery Kate O’Flynn is positioned really well to win over Einbinder in an upset.
Her co-star Matthew Rhys will also more than likely win his first Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for his work in “Widow’s Bay,” as Martin Short and Jason Segel, his two fellow nominees who also star in shows that got nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series this year, do not have as much momentum behind them as final voting approaches. That leaves Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series as the only major comedy acting category up in the air. There isn’t the aforementioned breakout factor this time around. Every nominee has been nominated before. Therefore, it really may finally be time for screen icon Harrison Ford to win his first Emmy, three seasons deep into his Apple TV series “Shrinking.”
With the Drama categories, again recent Outstanding Drama Series winner “The Pitt” on HBO Max is the nominations leader, but freshman Apple TV series “Pluribus” is not that far behind. What makes the Drama races different is that Apple TV series has struggled much more to find its bearings here. Neither “The Morning Show” nor “Slow Horses” earned Outstanding Drama Series nominations for their first two seasons. And only “Severance” has ever been a frontrunner in the category, despite the streaming service having premiered dozens of drama series at this point.
The second season of “The Pitt” was not as well-received as the first, but that does not necessarily mean the HBO Max series suffered a sophomore slump. The bar was just set impossibly high, to the point where I’d say its Emmy-winning stars Noah Wyle and Katherine LaNasa are unimpeachable in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series and Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series categories, respectively. Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series is a bit shakier, as nominee Shawn Hatosy also won an Emmy last year for the same role as a guest star, while breakout Patrick Ball, who appears more often throughout the medical drama, did not receive an Emmy nomination at all for Season 1.
Vote splitting happens less often than we anticipate, but there is a lot of room for “Task” star Tom Pelphrey to win instead, or even for “The Morning Show” star Billy Crudup to pull off another upset. The latter actor did best the stars of Emmy juggernauts like “Succession” and “Shōgun” after all, the two times he won the category.
The best hope “Pluribus” has of winning an acting category is star Rhea Seehorn earning her first ever Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series. It will not be easy, as she is nominated against Zendaya, who has won the category for every season of “Euphoria” so far, and “The Diplomat” star Keri Russell, who also outrageously has never won an Emmy, and bested Seehorn at the Actor Awards recently. But a win for Seehorn would not just be the TV Academy members righting the wrong of her never winning for “Better Call Saul,” it would right the wrong of that AMC series going zero for 53 at the Emmys across its highly celebrated six season run.
On a smaller level, another one of my mistakes predicting the Emmy nominations this year was thinking that the FX show “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” was more popular with voters than it actually ended up being. I would still put money on the breakout star Sarah Pidgeon winning the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for her portrayal of the late Carolyn Bessette, but with the other categories, it’s all “Beef” Season 2 versus “DTF St. Louis.”
Not only did the first season of “Beef” dominate the limited series categories at the Emmys three years ago, it kicked off Netflix having a major winning streak in the majority of the limited series categories to date. All this to say, “Beef” having a nominee in each acting category bodes well for it to win even more Emmys. However, star Cailee Spaeny being snubbed in Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie still points to the show underperforming on nominations day, as well as it did. Meanwhile “DTF St. Louis” got not one, but two unexpected nominations for its detectives played by Richard Jenkins and Joy Sunday.
Ultimately, chips falling where they did, Oscar Isaac has the best hope of any “Beef” actor to win an Emmy, as all the main “DTF St. Louis” men submitted in the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie category. His co-star Charles Melton has a lot of goodwill in his corner, with “Beef” being his first major role since “May December,” but it is hard not to label “DTF St. Louis” star David Harbour as the category frontrunner, stemming off of his Gotham TV Award win, among other factors. His co-star Linda Cardellini is also another actress who has been a television staple, appearing in everything from “Freaks and Geeks” to “Mad Men” to “Dead to Me,” yet never having won an Emmy, so consider her the frontrunner for the aforementioned Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie category.
As far as the rest of the categories we cover, the Netflix film “Remarkably Bright Creatures” does not really have any competition in Outstanding Movie besides the fellow Netflix book adaptation “People We Meet on Vacation.” For as much as the Outstanding Animated Program nominations were a surprise, the return season of “South Park” is still the frontrunner. Outstanding Reality Competition Program is a close race between “The Traitors” and “Survivor.” Many are betting that all five Outstanding Variety Series nominees will win, since that is possible, but we still have them listed in what we assume would be the preferential order in our predictions. And finally, the Documentary Emmys are more than likely going to the DGA Award-winning series “Mr. Scorsese” on Apple TV, and the heartstrings-tugging “Marty, Life is Short” documentary special on Netflix.
The 78th annual Primetime Emmy Awards are scheduled to take place on Monday, September 14, live on NBC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT. “Law & Order: SVU” star Mariska Hargitay will serve as host of the awards ceremony.
For more insight on the shows and stars we expect to be contenders this Emmys season, see below. IndieWire’s Emmy predictions will be refreshed throughout the race, so bookmark this page for the most accurate power rankings out there, and make sure to follow IndieWire on X, Facebook, and Instagram for all the latest Emmys news.
To read more analysis of the 2026 Emmys race, check out our new newsletter, “IndieWire’s The Lead Up,” where our Awards Editor Marcus Jones takes readers on the awards trail, interviewing key figures responsible for some of the most compelling series from this season, and offering predictions on who will win. Subscribe here to receive the newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday.
Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order. Number of frontrunners is based on how many nominees the category had the previous year.
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
“Hacks” (HBO Max)
“Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV)
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“The Bear” (FX)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Matthew Rhys, “Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Steve Carell, “Rooster” (HBO)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “Wonder Man” (Disney+)
Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” (HBO)
Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” (FX)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Stephen Root, “Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)
Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Michael Urie, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons” (Netflix)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Kate O’Flynn, “Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Dale Dickey, “Widow’s Bay” (Apple TV)
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Jessica Williams, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Megan Stalter, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
“The Pitt” (HBO Max)
“Pluribus” (Apple TV)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“The Gilded Age” (HBO)
“A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” (HBO)
“Your Friends and Neighbors” (Apple TV)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Rufus Sewell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO)
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age” (HBO)
Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments” (Hulu)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
Tom Pelphrey, “Task” (HBO)
Patrick Ball, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Shawn Hatosy, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Gerran Howell, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Fiona Dourif, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO)
“Beef” (Netflix)
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” (FX)
“All Her Fault” (Peacock)
“The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
“Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix)
“People We Meet on Vacation” (Netflix)
“Miss You, Love You” (HBO)
“Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan: Ghost War” (Prime Video)
“Heads of State” (Prime Video)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Oscar Isaac, “Beef” (Netflix)
Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Riz Ahmed, “Bait” (Prime Video)
Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” (FX)
Carey Mulligan, “Beef” (Netflix)
Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Sally Field, “Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
David Harbour, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO)
Charles Melton, “Beef” (Netflix)
Jason Bateman, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO)
Richard Gadd, “Half Man” (HBO)
Richard Jenkins, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO)
Nick Offerman, “Death by Lightning” (Netflix)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
Linda Cardellini, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO)
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Beef” (Netflix)
Constance Zimmer, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” (FX)
Dakota Fanning, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Joy Sunday, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO)
Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
“South Park” (Comedy Central)
“Star Wars: Visions” (Disney+)
“Smiling Friends” (Adult Swim)
“The Simpsons” (Fox)
“Rick and Morty” (Adult Swim)
“Bob’s Burgers” (Fox)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win*:
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)
“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” (ABC)
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO)
“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
*This category can have multiple winners.
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
“The Traitors” (Peacock)
“Survivor” (CBS)
“Dancing With the Stars” (ABC)
“RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV)
“Top Chef” (Bravo)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
“Mr. Scorsese” (Apple TV)
“Sean Combs: The Reckoning” (Netflix)
“The American Revolution” (PBS)
“The Yogurt Shop Murders” (HBO)
“Rafa” (Netflix)
Nominees in Order of Likelihood to Win:
“Marty, Life is Short” (Netflix)
“My Mom Jayne” (HBO)
“Mel Brooks: The 99 Year Old Man!” (HBO)
“Ocean with David Attenborough” (National Geographic)
“John Candy: I Like Me” (Prime Video)
