Somali Matters

Necessity of Political Agreement Among Somali Stakeholders

Afyare Elmi — Tue, 12 May 2026 20:17:12 GMT

May 12, 2026

Afyare A. Elmi
Research Professor, City University of Mogadishu

For the first time since the international community declared Somalia’s transition ended in 2012, President @HassanSMohamud’s government mandate is set to expire without a political agreement among Somali stakeholders. Even during the former president’s controversial term extension, Somali groups reached a political agreement on September 17, 2020, about five months before his mandate expired. Now, with Parliament’s mandate having expired last month, the president’s mandate is due to expire on Friday, May 15, 2026. Yet there is NO political agreement for the way forward and political dispensation.

This situation did not happen by accident. Given recent developments, it is evident that President @HassanSMohamud is determined to maintain power through gerrymandering, fake elections, manipulation, closing civic space, and using force to repress dissidents, journalists, and activists. The government has led the country into a political deadlock that threatens the survival of the Third Republic. This is a very bad legacy for @HassanSMohamud.

Reportedly, there are U.S.-led efforts to help prevent a complete collapse and encourage dialogue among the parties. I hope these efforts will result in a political agreement between the government and the opposition.

In my view, regardless of how the agreement is presented, four principles must be adhered to during the elections/selections at the Federal Government and Federal Member States levels:

1. Political Agreement: This must include the government, opposition, and Federal Member States. There is an urgent need for this agreement and political dispensation because Parliament’s mandate ended in April 2026, and the executive’s mandate, including the presidency, expires on Friday, May 15, 2026. Therefore, the governance vacuum should be filled as soon as possible with a political dispensation negotiated between the parties.
2. Competitiveness: Any model used must allow candidates to compete for seats. To my knowledge, the tribal clan power-sharing system, often referred to as 4.5, is here to stay, and all political forces accept that reality. That said, all potential gatekeepers, whether they are FGS leaders, opposition, FMS leaders, or elders, should be controlled to the extent possible. There must be open competition for every seat, and no fake competitors should be allowed (Malxiis). The biggest want-to-be gatekeeper is the government, its commission, its computer system, and its arbitrary laws.
3. Inclusivity and Independence: An inclusive and independent commission that can fairly arbitrate among competing candidates is necessary, and the system (if any) should be subject to international audit. Even if there is going to be a limited election where clan delegates elect candidates, some form of a system can be used as a trial. In the past, the government has refused to allow its system to be audited by one of the Big Four companies. @VillaSomalia missed a big opportunity because the president did not want a fair election.
4. Controlling Corruption: Corruption has always been endemic in Somalia, but the government’s approach to land management has taken it to a new level. Upon election, Martin Ronceray and Bruce Byiers reported on various strategies that African leaders employ to manipulate elections: changing the constitution, removing term limits, excluding candidates or voters, weakening watchdog organizations, and manipulating timing. On election day, these leaders resort to vote-buying, intimidation, control of information, falsification of results, and claims of victory. Based on the so-called municipal elections in Mogadishu and the government’s approach to this issue since 2024, Villa Somalia has effectively implemented all of the above tactics. (See the report here: https://ecdpm.org/work/elections-in-africa-playing-the-game-or-bending-the-rules)

In short, it is unfortunate that President @HassanSMohamud has become the first president to openly attempt to unilaterally change the political settlement agreed upon by Somalis, and his term will expire without a political agreement. Let us hope that a deal is reached before Friday, May 15, 2026.

Just in case you want to read my previous writings on this issue, here are two:

1. Can Somalia’s Third Republic Be Saved? Available at https://mecouncil.org/publication/can-somalias-third-republic-be-saved/

Somalia’s 2026 election risks a legitimacy crisis: Available at https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2025/12/19/somalias-2026-election-risks-a-legitimacy-crisis

Duubistii Ugaaska: Madal Dhaqameed Furtay Dood Qaran

Afyare Elmi — Sun, 26 Apr 2026 20:06:53 GMT

Afyare Cabdi Cilmi
Cilmi-baare ka tirsan City University of Mogadishu

April 26, 20226

Caleema-saarkii ugaaska beesha Murusade, Ugaas Cabdirisaaq Ugaas Cabdullaahi Ugaas Xaashi, waxa uu isku keenay dad farabadan oo ka kala yimid gobollada Soomaaliyeed. Ujeeddada la iskugu yimid wuxuu ahaa mid dhaqan oo lagu caleema-saarayey hoggaamiye-dhaqameed. Madax dhaqan iyo kuwa siyaasadeed oo ka tirsan beeshii gogosha dhigtay ayaa dhowr goor xusuusiyey dadka in dhaqanka lagu ekaado oo aan siyaasad la gelin. Taasise ma dhicin oo qaar badan oo dadkii hadlay ka mid ahi kama aallin siyaasadda inay ka hadlaan.

Ugaas Cabdirisaaq Ugaas Cabdullaahi Ugaas Xaashi

Si kasta oo ay u dadaaleen dadkii ka hadlay xafladda caleema-saarku, haddana waxaa muuqanayey in dadka qaar siyaasadda ku turunturoonayeen, kuwa kale ay qodob-siyaasadeed hoos-ka-tuur dusinayeen, kuwa kalena ay la bareerayeen warkooda.

Suldaan Cabdisalaan Suldaan Maxamuud oo mar ah odey dhaqameed, mar kalana ah nin aqoonyahan ah oo goobta ka hadlay ayaa toos u abbaaray ubucda mushkiladda Soomaaliyeed ee jiitantay, islamarkaasan si aftahamo leh u soo bandhigay labo arrimood oo waaweyn oo Soomaalida dhexyaal. Labadaas arrimood waa baahida ay Soomaalidu u qabto madal furan oo loo dhan yahay iyo heshiis dhab ah.

Suldaan Cabdisalaan waxa uu yiri “45 sano oo colaad ah oo qax ah oo barakac ah oo is-dil ah oo is-uugaan ah oo kala firir ah oo Soomaalidii qalbigoodu kala irdhoobay, waxay u baahan tahay wax isu-keena oo heshiisiiya.” Suldaanku wuxuu intaas ku daray baahida loo qabo heshiis dhab isagoo leh “war ma aynaan heshiin, madal kuma aynaan wada hadlin, boogahayaga ma aynaan dhayin.”

Suldaan Cabdisalaan waxaa kale uu xusay baahida ay Soomaalidu u qabto madal furan oo loo dhan yahay oo ay si dhab ah ugu wada hadasho. Suldaanku wuxuu yiri “Madashaan maanta Murusade dhigay oo ugaasku keenay, nabaddii Soomaaliyeed waa in loogu wanqalaa, bilaash yaan lagu kala tegin.” Wuxuu ku soo koobay “Soomaaliya saraaxo ayay u baahan tahay.” Waa runtii oo mujaamalada siyaasiyiintu waa bar-kuma-taal.

Waxaa goobta ka hadlay dad farabadan oo iskugu jira odoyaal dhaqan iyo siyaasiyiinta Soomaaliyeed oo ka kala socday dowladda iyo mucaaradka. Sida caadada ah, siyaasiyiinta, odayaasha dhaqanka iyo haldoorka kale ee Soomaalidu ma helaan madal furan oo ay toos ugu wada hadli karaan si run ah. Waxaase dhaca madal ujeedka ka dambeeya yahay riwaayadeyn, humbaalleyn iyo igu sawir oo inta badan ay madaxda dowladuhu adeegsadaan.

Si kastaba ha noqotee, madasha caleema-saarka Ugaas Cabdirisaaq Ugaas Cabdullaahi Ugaas Xaashi oo ujeed dhaqan lahayd, waxay si aan ku tala-gal ahayn mararka qaar u noqonaysay madal qaran oo furan oo ay isku-hertiyaan aragtiyo kala geddisan oo waayey goob ay ku garnaqsadaan. Mise markii la xero-taraarabam, waa laga soo celinayey siyaasadda iyo qodobbada xasaasiga in la aado. Tan kale, waxay madashani muujisay in weli Soomaalida ay wax u dhaqan yihiin marka ay timaaddo dhaqanka oo ay odayaashu isku keeni karaan kooxaha dirirsan.

Runtii hadal-jeedinta Suldaan Cabdisalaan waxay dillaacisay boog dusheeda la dhayi jiray. Meel loo dhaafo ma leh, nuxurka ah waxaan u baahan nahay madal furan oo dhex ah iyo heshiis ku dhisan run.

Waxaa isna codsi u jeediyey odayadii dhaqanka ee iskugu yimid caleema-saarka ugaaska Madaxweynihii hore ee Soomaaliya, Sheekh Shariif Sheekh Axmed. Wuxuuna odoyaasha ka codsaday inay ay dhexgalaan oo xal u raadiyaan khilaafka siyaasiyiinta. “Waan is indha-buuxi weynay ee na dhex gala” ayuu yiri Sheekh Shariif Sheekh Axmed. Madaxweyne Xassan Sheekh oo isna soo xiray madasha ayaa tilmaamay inaan odayada laga maarmin oo ay ka qeyb-qaataan xalka. Inkasta oo uusan afka ku ballaarin, haddana way muuqatay in laftiisu uu meel uu hawsha uu wato mariyo weysan yahay. Madaxweyne hore, Maxamed Cabdullaahi Farmaajo ayaa isna taageeray baaqa uu u jeediyey Sheekh Shariif duubabka dhaqanka.

Waqtiga ay madashani timid waa muhiim runtii. Waxaa madashani ay bannaanka keentay hilow iyo rabitaan ballaaran oo ay Soomaalidu u qabto wadahadal qaran iyo heshiis bulsho. Sida muuqata, dadku uma jeel-qabaan siyaasiyiinta kaligood goob ay ku murmayaan, iyo meel ay kuraas iyo xilal ku qeybsanayaan.

Baaqyada ay jeedinayeen Suldaanka iyo madaxdu waxay dib iigu celiyeen cilmi-baaris aan ka qoray mowduucan sanadkii hore oo gunaanadkeedu waafaqayo doodda soo jeedinta Suldaan Cabdisalaan. Waxaa ka soo baxay cilmi-baaristaas in Soomaalidu u baahan tahay madal furan oo loo dhan yahay iyo heshiis dhab ah. Cilmi-baaristan waxaan fulanqeeyey xiriirka ka dhexeeya shirarka nadadeynta sida kii Carta iyo hawlaha dastuur-samaynta. Waxaa ka soo baxay in dastuur-sameyn ay koox yari wadato ama shirweyne nabadeed oo ujeedkiisu kooban yahay aysan noqon karin gaadiid qaadi kara culeyska khilaafka yaal.

Cilmi-baaristan waxaa ka dhashay cilmi-baaris kale oo ku saabsan baahida loo qabo madal furan iyo wadahadal qaran. Madal furan iyo wadahadal qaran waa ay ka xeeldheer yihiin shirarka igu-sawirta ah ee ujeedka ka dambeeya yahay is-muujin. Daraasaddu waxa ay ka hadleysaa madal furan oo dhammaan ay qeybaha kala duwan ee bulshadu ka qeybgalaan, si run ahna uga doodaan wixii la soo maray, waxa taagan iyo halka loo socdaba.

Intii aan ku guda-jirnay cilm-baarisyadan, dadkii aan wareysannay waxay sheegeen in odayada dhaqanka, jaamacadaha iyo macaahidda cilmi-baarista, iyo bulshada rayadka ah ay qaban-qaabi karaan madal furan oo loo dhan yahay. Ogooboo, dooddii qaran ee Tunisya waxaa qaban-qaabiyey afar urur oo bulshada rayadka ah. Waxayna ku qaateen abaal-marinta Nopel-Price-ka. Tii dalka Benin, waxaa hormuud u ahaa Baadariga caasimadda. Doodda qaran ee hadda Koonfur Afrika waxaa marti-gelinaya Jaamacadda Koonful Afrika. Marka wax diidaya ma jiraan in oday dhaqameed ama jaamacad ay abaabulaan madal furan iyo dood qaran.

Sidoo kale, dadkii aan ku waraysannay cilmi-baarisyadu waxay u arkaan waxyaalaha waaweyn ay tahay in Soomaalidu uga wada hadasho madasha ay ugu horreeyaan heshiisiinta bulshada iyo arrimaha dowlad-dhiska la xiriira ee kala duwan. Runtii madasha lagu caleema-saarayey Ugaas Cabdirisaaq Ugaas Cabdullaahi waxa ka soo muuqday waxyaalihii ay dadka aan cilmi-baarista ku wareysannay noo sheegeen. Iyadoo aan la dedin ayay markii ay odayada iyo siyaasiyiintuba fursad heleen ay si toos ah u abbaareen baahiyahaas aan soo sheegay.

Shirar badan waa ay ka dhacaan dalka qeybihiisa kala duwan. Laakiin waxa maqan madal furan oo heer qaran ah oo laga wada qeyb-galo oo si dhab ah loogu xalliyo mushkiladaha jira iyadoo lagu dhiirranayo, daacad laga yahay, loona dhan yahay. Sidaa darteed, waxaan qabaa inaan la fududeysan hadal-jeedinta Suldaan Cabdisalaan. Suldaanku wuxuu dillaaciyey boogtii ay Soomaalidu dusheeda dhayeysay oo marba wax aan jirin raadinaysay. Mujaamalada beenta ah ee ay siyaasiyiintu marka ay kaamerada horjoogaan tusinayaan dadka ee aan xaqiiqda ahayn waxba soo kordhin mayso.

Ugu dambeyntii, caleema-saarka Ugaaska beesha Murusade, Ugaas Cabdirisaaq Ugaas Cabdullaahi, waxay si aan ku-tala-gal ahayn bannaanka u keentay baahida ay dadka Soomaaliyeed u qabaan madal furan oo loo dhan yahay iyo heshiis dhab ah. Mararka qaar waxay dadkii hadlay hambalyada, bogaadinta iyo talooyinka ku dhex darsanayeen garnaqsi iyo baaq. Tartanka siyaasiyiinta iyo buuqiisa waxaa gadaashooda ka yeeraya cod dheer oo leh waxaan rabnaa madal furan iyo wadahadal iyo heshiis run ah. Waa halkii Gaarriey yiriye, “Allow garansii nin moog”

Madaxweyne: Yaan Dartaa Xukun Loogu Diririn

Afyare Elmi — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 03:33:00 GMT

Afyare Cabdi Elmi

“Madaxdaan kursiga loogu bogin, waa iska beyrshaane; Sharci madax-bannaan iyo gar baa la isku-baacshaaye.”

Labadan beyd waxay ku jiraan sheekadii murtida badanyd ee uu Axmed Sheekh Jaamac ugu magacdaray “Federaalka Xoolaha Soomaaliyeed” oo ay xooluhu uga tashanayeen sidii ay aadanaha uga xoroobi lahaayeen oo ay dowlad u dhisan lahaayeen. Dood dheer kadib, xooluhu waxay doorteen guddi cilmi-baaris ku sameeya xukunnada kala duwan ee dunida soo maray. Guddigaas waxaa madax u ahaa dibi la yiraa Margi-Yaaqle oo maansadii “Sahan iyo Warkiis” ku soo bandhigay wixii uu cilmi-baarista ku soo ogaaday. Ciddii aan hore u arag ha dhageysato oo ha dhuuxdo. Haddii aad aqrisay buugga Orwell ee Animal Farm, Axmed Sheekh Jaamac wuxuu sameeyey iyaddoo ka xeeldheer oo maansooyin Soomaali ah.

Jaallayaal intaasi waa arar ee nuxurka aan u socdo waa kan.

Soomaaliya waxay mar kale dhex-istaagtay marxalad halis ah.

Kacaankii 21-kii Oktoober 1969, wuxuu maroorsaday awooddii, wuxuu laalay dastuurkii, wuxuuna mamnuucay xisbiyadii siyaasadda. Qolyahan wuxuu u samaystay Hey’adda Nabad-Sugidda iyo Maxkamadda Badbaadada. Intii hunguriga xukunku hayey, waxay hub u doonteen Itoobiya, wiilal dirirana waxay u doonteen reerahooda. Xukunka waxay ku dooneen xoog illeen askartii baa iyaguna xoog ku haystee. Hadde waxaa dhacay dagaalladii sokeeye ee lagu rogmaday.

Mar la hoogoo la ba’ay oo 21 sano oo xukun militari ah iyo 10 sano oo dowlad la’aan ah dabadood, Soomaalidii iskugu timid Carta waxay ku heshiiyeen in xukunka hab nabad ah lagula kala wareego muddo-xileedka qolo kasta marka uu dhamaado. Yaanba sidii la rabay loo fulin laakiin lix madaxweyne ayaa isku-baddashay heshiiskaas ka soo billowday Carta. Farrrintu waa cadayd, waxayna “xukun-kaligii-talis ah ma oggolin, maroorsina warkii daa.

Berga oo ay taariikhdu tahay April 14, 2026 waxaa dhamaaday muddo-xileedkii baarlamaanka. Muddo xileedka Madaxweynahana waxaa ka heray hal bil oo kaliya. Wax heshiis siyaasadeed ah lama hayo. Madaxweyne Xassan Sheekh asagoo adeegsanaya xeerkiisa iyo guddigiisa iyo computer-kiisa Villada u yaal ayuu rabaa inuu xukunka si sharci-darro ah ku maroorsado. Doorasho been ah iyo taageeerada dadka Soomaaliyeed ay siiyaan dalalka caalamka xalaal kama dhigayaan xukun-boob.

Madaxweyne: Dadka ha sii kala fogeyn oo yaan dartaa xukun loogu diririn. Kor dad waa wada indho. Ku soo noqo dastuurkii aad madaxda ku noqotay, mucaaradkana kala heshii sidii doorashooyin dadban oo ka fiican kuwi hore loo aadi lahaa. Ha laga daayo cabburinta iyo xarigga muwaadiniinta si nabad ah fikirkooda u cabbiraya.

Mucaaradka: Nidaamka ayaa ku kale laga agdhisayaa sax maha. Weli fursad baa jirta ee si nabad ah oo miyir ah ku raadiya is-baddalka.

Dadweynaha: Dhammaanteen masuuliyad baa naga saaran inaan si nabad ah uga hor nimaad ciddii rabta inay boobto xukunka, magaca ay doontaba boobkaas ha u bixisee. “Haddaan Maahsanaa, miyir-doorsanaa, Miiraabay oo, mugga waan ilbaxay” ayuu Gaarriye yiri. Hadde muggaan kurteen waa ilbaxnay oo siyaasiyiin nama siri karaan.

Caalamka iyo Dalalka Soomaaliya Saaxiibka la ah: Taageera in si nidaam ah oo heshiis lagu yahay awoodda lagula kala wareego.

Somalia is calling again

Afyare Elmi — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 03:31:20 GMT

Afyare Elmi

When the military took power in 1969, it suspended the constitution, banned political parties, and closed all competitive political channels. Those with political ambitions crossed the border and organized clans to seize power by force. The result was a brutal civil war that began in 1978.

After 21 years of military rule and 10 years of state collapse, Somalis gathered in Arta and agreed to an incomplete political settlement aimed at reinstating the state. Given the experiences of the military dictatorship and subsequent chaos, Somalis became sensitive to anyone attempting to grasp power through illegal means. The most important message from the delegates was “never again to a dictatorship.”

Consequently, the most important component of the political settlement was that there would be no security for regimes; when the mandate ends, there must be a transition, either through elections or Somali way/ political dispensation/ indirect elections. In practice, six presidents, Abdiqasim Salad Hassan, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo,” and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud have succeeded one another.

Unfortunately, after 25 years of the Third Republic, President @HassanSMohamud is openly engaged in power-grabbing beyond his mandate. Today, April 14, 2026, the four-year mandate of Parliament has ended. On May 15, 2026, the president’s four-year term will also conclude. As of now, there is no political agreement among politicians regarding the upcoming transition. The president, using his Ministry of Truth, to borrow Orwell’s doublespeak, wants to remain in power through fake elections and the support of well-meaning external partners.

This is unacceptable. It will undermine the achievements of the last 25 years, as well as Somali and international investments.

Mr. President: Your actions and inactions will deepen polarization and fragmentation. Please revert to the constitution that has given you your mandate and work with political groups to reach a political agreement as soon as possible. Stop arresting the citizens who are peacefully voicing their views.

Opposition Groups: Avoid a parallel process. Seek change through peaceful means.

Somali People: We all have a responsibility to peacefully say NO to power-grabbers, regardless of who they are.

International community and external partners: Please support the political transition and pressure all parties to agree on a way forward.

Milicsiga Buugaagta: Baadigoobkii Nabadda Geeska

Afyare Elmi — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 22:05:15 GMT

Maxamed Cabdi Affey. (2025). Baadigoobkii Nabadda Geeska. Aleen Afrique Publishing.

By Afyare Cabdi Cilmi
City University of Mogadishu
April 8, 2026

Qormadan waxaan ku soo koobayaa, dabadeedna ku falanqeynayaa buugga “Baadigoobka Nabadda Geeska” ee qoray Danjire Maxamed Cabdi Affey.

Baadigoobkii Nabadda Geeska waa buug ku saabsan safarkii iyo waayihii nolosha danjire Maxamed Cabdi Affey oo ka soo billowday miyiga sanadkii 1968 ilaa xilliga la daabacay buugga (2025). Waa buug u qoran habka buugta xusuus-qorka ah loo qoro. Waxa uu buuggu ka kooban yahay 13 cutub. Marka laga reebo labada cutub ee ugu horreeya oo ku saabsan carruurnimadii iyo waxbarashadiisa, cutubyada kale waxay ku saabsan yihiin shaqooyinkii uu Danjire Affey soo qabtay.

Shaqooyinka uu Danjire Affey soo qabtay intooda badan waxay la xiriiraan Soomaalida, gaar ahaan heshiisiinta iyo dowlad-dhiska Soomaalida. Tusaale, Danjire Affey wuxuu si toos ah uga shaqeynayey isagoo ku matalaya dalkiisa Kenya shirarkii Dib-U-Heshiisiina Carta (2000), Mbagathi (2002-2004), shirarkii dhacay Xilligii Maxkamadaha Islaamiga ah (2006-2008), iyo sameyntii maamul-goboleedyada (2013 -2016).

Maaddaama uu buuggu ka warramayaa waxyaalo farabadan, afar qodob uunbaan qormadan ku faallaynayaa.

Tan hore, Danjire Affey noloshiisa hore ee ka soo billaabanaysa miyigu waxa ay muujinaysaa sida ay Soomaalidu isku duruuf u yihiin gobol kasta oo ay ka yimaadeen. Nolosha uu Danjiruhu ka sheekeynayo ee xoola-dhaqatada, duruufaha adag ee ku xeeran iyo iskaashiga qoyska waa mid uu qof kasta oo Soomaali ah la dareemayo qoraaga. Xitaa kuwa magaalooyinka ku dhashay, waa ay garanayaan oo ka marqaati-kacayaan duruufaha dadka Soomaaliyeed ay ku noolaayeen. Waxaan qabaa in cutubyadani xusuusinayaan dadka nolosha miyiga, is-taakuleynta qoyska iyo muhimadda aqoonta, islamarkaana ay bilayaan buugga. Si kale haddii loo dhigana, farriinta ku jirta waa fursad + dedaal = waa guul.

Labo, buuggan waxaa markiiba ka soo muuqanaya waaya-aragnimada ballaaran ee uu Danjire Affey ka helay ka shaqeynta Soomaaliya. Mawaadiicda uu ka shaqeeyey waxaa ka mid ah heshiisiinta iyo isku-soo jiid-jiidka Soomaalida, dowlad-dhiska oo uu mararka qaar dhexdhexaadiyey ka ahaa dhismaha baarlamaanka ka dhashay Mbagathi, dib-u-dejinta dowladda, dhismaha maamul-goboleedyada, hawlihii maxaakiimta Islaamiga ah, iyo la dagaallankii burcad-badeedda.

Saddex, hawshiisu kuma aysan koobnayn oo kaliya dowlad-dhiska Soomaaliya. Kenya waxay marti-galisay qaxooti badan oo Soomaaliyeed. Runtii arrinka qaxootigu wuxuu ahaa mid aad muhiim ah. Waqtiga loo magacaabayey danjiraha u-qareemidda qaxootiga waxaa ku tabaalaysnaa dalalka deriska ah dad ka badan 1.2 milyan Soomaali ah. Sidoo kale, waxaa barakacayaal ku ahaa dalka gudihiisa tiro taas la eg. Kenya waxay hanjabaad joogta ah ku haysay qaxootiga oo ay ugu hanjabaysay inay xoog ku celinayso. Dhanka kale, dowladdii Soomaaliya ka jirta xilligaa kama muuqan inay xitaa madaxdu dareensan yihiin in tiro intaas la eg oo muwaadinitiinta ay matalaan ah inay qaxooti iyo barakacayaal yihiin.

Xoghaya Guud ee Qaramada Midoobay ee Antonio Guterres oo mar madax ka ahaa Hey’adda Qaxootiga ayaa waxaa uu ku celcelin jiray “madaxda Kenya yaysan bar-tilmaameedsan dadka qaxootiga ah”, madaxda Soomaaliyana ha ku darsadaan qaxootiga ka maqan arrimaha ay mudnaanta siinayaan. Halka ay Kenya ku adkeysanaysay in la celiyo qaxootiga Soomaaliyeed, Tanzaaniya waxay siisay sharciga qaxootigii dalkeeda joogay. Danjire Affey wuxuu u qareemayey qaxootiga Soomaaliyeed ka hor intii aan loo magacaabin shaqada. Waxaan dhamaadkii 2013 kula kulmay Danjiraha shir looga hadlayey qaxootiga Soomaaliyeed oo ka dhacay Geneva, uuna guddoominayey Antonio Guterres oo markaas ahaa madaxii Hey’adda Qaxootiga.

Afar, hal-abuurka Danjire Affey ayaad markiiba ka arkaysaa. Marar badan oo xaalku adkaaday, wuxuu keenayaa xal oo si looga gudbo marxaladdaas. Dhanka kale, xirfadda diblomaasiyadeed ee Danjire Affey ayaa markiiba u muuqanaysa aqristaha waayo waxa uu marar badan kala ilaalinayaa dano iyo ajendayaal iska soo hor-jeeda. Mar waa nin Soomaaliyeed oo dhex-taagan dadkiisii oo dirirsan. Marna waa diblomaaasi ah Kenyan oo laga rabo inuu ilaaliyo danaha dalkiisa. Waxaa kale oo qeyb ka ah hawsha uu ku jiro Itoobiya oo saamayn weyn ku leh Soomaalida iyo Urur-Goboleedka IGAD. Dhanka kale, Danjire Affey waxa uu goobjoog ka yahay marar badan habka ay go’aamada u qaadanayaan. Waana la fahmi karaa oo aragti-gaabnida, xog-yarida, xamaasadda iyo qabyaalad indho-la’aanta ah waa natiijada ka dhalatay burburka.

Aqristayaashu buuggan waxay ka helayaan saddex faa’iido.

Buuggani wuxuu soo bandhigayaa xog badan oo aan dibadda oollin, warbaahintana lagu soo bandhigin. Buuggan Danjire Affey wuxuu ku soo bandhigayaa xogta dhacdooyin badan oo anfacaya dadka cilmi-baarista dowlad-dhiska Soomaalida ka shaqeeya. Tusaale yaab leh waa sida ay madaxdii Soomaaliyeed ku qaateen nidaamka federaalka, islamarkaasna lagu dhisay dowladdii ka dhalatay shirkii Mbagathi 2004.

Danjire Affey oo dhexdhexaadinta fure u ahaa waxa uu ka sheekeynayaa dooddii dhexmartay labada kooxood ee ay kala hoggaaminayeen Madaxweyne Cabdiqaasin Salaad Xassan iyo Madaxweyne Cabdullaahi Yuusuf oo xilligaas ahaa madaxweynaha Puntland, islamarkaasna hoggaaminayey is-bahaysiga mucaaradka. Marka go’aankan la gaarayo waxa kala wehliyey Maxamed Cabdi Yuusuf oo ahaa Ra’iisul-Wasaaraha Dowladda KMG ah iyo Maxamed Qanyare Afrax oo ka mid ahaa hoggaamiye-kooxeedyada Muqdisho. Haddii si kale loo dhigo, waxaa si qarsoodi ah ku go’aamiyey in nidaamka federaalka la qaato afartaa siyaasi oo kaliya. Waxaa kaloo xiiso leh in ergadii laga qariyey habkii loo gaaray go’aanka. Xogtan uu danjire Affey soo bandhigay waxay tusinaysaa in go’aamo waaweyn oo dowlad-dhiska Soomaalida khuseeya aan dood sax la galin, taasina ay mas’uuliyaddeeda leeyihiin siyaasiyiinta Soomaalida hoggaaminayey.

Tan labaad, buuggani wuxuu ku qoran yahay Far-Soomaali oo dad badan ayaa aqrisan kara. Wuxuuna dhiirri-gelinayaa in dad badan ay Far-Soomaali ax ku qoraan. Waan ku bogaadinayaa Danjire Affey inuu ku qoray far-Soomaali. Waxaana qabaa in buuggani uu dhallinyarada Soomaaliyeed siinayo rajo iyo dhiirri-gelin gudbinaysa farriinta ah “dedaalaa waa gaaraa” iyo inay afkooda ku qoraan hal-abuurkooda.

Buuggu afka uu ku qoran yahay waa mid sahlan. Gabayo iyo maahmaahyo iyo hal-ku-dhegyadii suugaanta Soomaalidu kuma badna. Lahjadda uu ku qoran yahay waa tan warbaahinta Soomaalidu adeegsato oo ma ahan tii Waqooyi-Bari. Ku darsoo, qaab-qoraalku waa mid waafaqsan habka loo qoro buugta xussuus-qorka ee noocan oo kale ah. Dhammaan sheekooyinka uu ka warinayo dhacdooyinkii uu goob-joogga u ahaa waxaa uu u soo gudbiyey si dhamaystiran oo fudud.

Dhanka kale, waxaa buugga iiga muuqda qabyo. Waxaa jira qaladaad xagga higgaadda ah oo aan filayo in laga saxo dabacadda soo socota. Dhanka, buugta xusuus-qorka ah waxaa inta badan lagu kabaa archival research oo dhacdooyinka muhimka ah waxaa loo sameeyaa tixraacyo. Danjire Affey qaar ka mid ah waraaqaha sida kuwii lagu magacaabay ama kuwii ka soo baxay shirarka qaarkood waa uu soo bandhigay. Laakiin, waxaa ka maqan meelo badan dokumentiyadii daliilka noqon lahaa uusan u samayn tixraac. Tusaale, shirka Carta iyo kan Mbagathi labadaba waxaa ka soo baxay dastuurro qabya ah oo si sahlan loogu sameyn karo tixraacyo.

Gabagabadii, buugga Baadigoobkii Nabadda Geeska waa buug ku soo aaday xilligiisii. Waxaa ku jira xog farabadan oo uu qoraagu goob-joog u ahaa. Waxaan ku dhiirri-galinayaa dadka danaynaya arrimaha dowlad-dhiska Soomaalida, gaar ahaan cilmi-baarayaalka inay aqriyaan oo ka fal-celiyaan.

Dhanka kale, buuggani waa mid xambaarsan muhimadda ay dadaalka iyo dhiirranidu u leeyihiin guusha nolosha. Nuxurka buugga waxaa lagu soo koobi karaa in uu Danjire Affey aad u dedaalay, kana faa’iidaystay fursadihii waxbarasho ee adeerkii u abuuray iyo kuwii ka jiray dalka Kenya. Wuxuu buuggu gudbinayaa farriin ah inuu u adeegay dadka Soomaaliyeed (kuwii degmada uu matalayey ka yimid iyo intii uu gaari karo ummadda Soomaaliyeed).

Ugu dambeyntii, waxaa laga baran karaa buuggan casharro la xiriira heerka uu khilaafka Soomaalidu gaarsiisan yahay iyo heerka farsamada iyo aqoonta siyaasiyiinta dalka uu joogo.

Ha la aqriyo oo ha la falanqeeyo buugga Baadigoobka Nabadda Geeska ee uu qoray Danjire Maxamed Cabdi Affey.

Maxaa la Gudboon Reer Koonfur-Galbeed?

Afyare Elmi — Wed, 01 Apr 2026 03:09:01 GMT

Afyare Cabdi Cilmi
March 31, 2026

Koonfur-Galbeed waxay la daalaa-dhacaysaa duruufo badan oo ay ka mid yihiin abaaro iyo colaado. Qormadanse waxaan ku cabbirayaa doorkii ay ku lahaan jireen dowlad-dhiska Soomaaliya iyo halka ay tahay inay hadda ka galaan aragti-ku-doodista iyo hardan-siyaasadeedka hadda dalka ka jira.

Maamulkii ka talinayay Koonfur-Galbeed muddo 7 sano ah wuxuu ku baxay sidii uu markiisii hore ku yimid oo ah qasab iyo jujuub iyo dano fara-badan oo la is-dhaafsaday. Kii ka sii horreeyey wuxuu ku yimid, kuna baxay sidoo kale. Labadaba waxaa keenay Villa Soomaaliya, waxaana bixiyey Villa Soomaaliya. Si kale haddii loo yiraahdo, Villa Soomaaliya waxay u maamulaysay Koonfur-Galbeed iyo maamullada kale ee ku tiirsan sida ay u maamusho gobolka Banaadir. Qormadan waxaan ku falanqaynayaa su’aasha ah maxaa kala gudboon dadka reer Koonfur-Galbeed xaaladda taagan iyo dedaallada dowlad-dhiska.

Marka koowaad, wax kastoo dhacayba, waxaa la gudboon reer Koonfur-Galbeed inay iskugu yimaadaan gogol ay si dhab ah uga heshiinayaan wixii dhacay, ayna si sax uga doodayaan masaalixda iyo mabaadi’da ay rabaan inay ku dul-dhisaan dowladnimada gonolka iyo tan Soomaaliyeedba. Gogoshan, haddiiba aan la afduubin, waxay abuuri karta jawi si sax ah loogu wada hadlo. Heshiis dhab ah dabadii ayuunbaa la samayn karaa maamul dowladeed oo ka shaqeeya danta dadka iyo doorasho ay inta danaynaysa xukunka ay si daahfuran oo caddaalad ah ugu tartamaan.

Marka labaad, waxaa is-weydiin mudan, wax-garadka reer Koonfur-Galbeed maxay ka aaminsanaan jireen, maxayse hadda ka aaminsan yihiin aragtiyada dowlad-dhiska Soomaaliya?

Waa Beerta Dalxiiska ee ku taal Magaalada Baydhaba

Taariikhda siyaasadda Soomaalidu waxay muujinaysaa inay reer koonfur-Galbeed aragti ka lahaayeen dowlad-dhiska, si cadna ay ugu ololayn jireen aragtidooda.

Koonfur-Galbeed waa dhul weyn oo ay deggan yihiin dad Soomaaliyeed oo fara-badan. Waxaase ku asteysan qabaa’ilka Digil iyo Mirifle. Dabcan, beelaha Digil iyo Mirifle way degaan gobollada kale oo ka baxsan Koonfur-Galbeed, meelaha qaarna waxay ku leeyihiin metalaad muuqata. Sidoo kale, waa ay jiraan qabaa’ila aan ahayn Digil iyo Mirifle oo dega Koonfur-Galbeed, kuna leh metalaad. Qormadan waxay ku saabsan tahay maamul-goboleedka Koonfur-Galbeed ee hadda jira.

Waa hore iyo 1948 oo ah markii ay afartii awoodood oo ku adkaaday dagaalkii labaad ka doodayeen mustaqbalka Soomaaliyadii uu Talyaanigu gumaysanayey, reer Koonfur-Galbeed oo ay metalayaan odayadooda iyo siyaasiyiintooda ku mideysnaa Xisbiya Digil iyo Mirifle waxay aragti cad ka lahaayeen arrimhii waaweynaa ee taagnaa sida dalka gaarsiinaya xornimada Soomaaliya, muddada loo baahan yahay iyo nooca dowladdu noqonayso.

Markii hore waxay soo jeediyeen in Talyaanigu uu xornimada gaarsiiyo dalka, iyo in loo baahan yahay muddo 30 sano ah si ay Soomaalidu iskugu filnaato. Sidoo kale, Xisbiya Digil iyo Mirifle waxaa dastuurkooda ugu qornaa in inay doonayaan in nidaamka federaalka la qaato.

Marka dib loo fiiryo, waaba lagu doodi karaa in soo jeedimahoodu ay kaga saxnaayeen SYL oo iyadu rabtay afarta awoodood inay maamulaan iyo in xornimada la soo dedejiyo, nidaam dowlad-dhexe ahna la qaato.

Mar kale ayay madaxdii matalaysay Xisbiya Digil and Mirifle ayaa soo jeediyey in federaalka la qaato horraantii 1960 kii oo markaas la diyaarinayey dastuurka dowladdii dhalanaysay 1960. Aragtidooda la xiriirta federaalku waxay ku jirtay xeerarka lagu maamulo Xisbiga. Waase laga diiday. Yaa ku saxnaa aragtiyadan waa arrin dood u furan. Waxaase muuqata inay wax-garadka Koonfur-Galbeed aragti ka lahaayeen arrimaha dowlad-dhiska.Shirkii Carta, reer Koonfur-Galbeed waxay la yimaadeen go’aan ah inay helaan awood-qeybsi u dhigma kan ay heleen beelaha kale ee hubeysnaa. Waana ay ku guuleysteen. Markii ay ka socotay dooddii nidaamka Federaalka la xiriirtay shirkii Mbagathi 2002-2004, hoggaamiyayaashii reer Koonfur-Galbeed xilligaas waxay si cad u taageersanaayeen nidaamka Federaalka in la qaato. Markan waxaa si xoog leh ugu ololaynayay mashruuca federaalka madaxdii ka joogtay shirka Puntland. Si aan ergooyinkii joogay oo dhan aysan isku-waafaqsanayn ayaa loogu qaatay nidaamka Federaalka shirkii 2002-2004 ee ka dhacay Kenya.

Waqti hore yeelkiis ee hadda indheer-garadka, aqoonyahanka iyo siyaasiyiinta reer Koonfur-Galbeed maxay ka aaminsan yihiin doodaha socda? Ma cadda runtii, sababtana waa inaysan helin gogoshii, goleyaashii iyo fursadihii ay ku falanqeyn lahaayeen, dabadeedna ay go’aamo ku qaadan lahaayeenba.

Waxaa dalka hadda jira aragtiyo badan oo iska soo horjeeda. Qolo waxay ku doodaysay midnimadii 1960 dhexmartay Somaaliya iyo Soomaalilnad waa ay burburtay. Waxayna soo jeediyeen in la kala baxo oo qolaba ay gaarkeeda u istaagto. Waa aragtida go’itiaanka ee Hargeysa hoggaamiso. Qolyo kale oo ay Puntland hoggaaminayso waxay qabaan nidaam federaal ah oo awoodda dowladda dhexe kooban tahay in la qaato. Dhanka kale, Muqdisho waxaa taal aragti leh waxaa la dhisayaa dowlad dhexe oo xoog leh oo Xamar laga xukumo. Aragtidan waxa ay aad u soo if-baxday wixii ka dambeeyey 2017. Labadii dowladood ee u dambeeyey waxay qaateen aragtidan.

Dabcan, dad ka mid ah madaxda Koonfur-Galbeed oo ku jira maamulka dowladdu waxay qaateen fikirkan: Sheekh Aadan Madoobe iyo Cabdicasiis Lafta-Gareen waxay hormuud u ahaayeen mashruuca dastuurka ee ay Villa Soomaaliya wadato oo nuxurka ka ah nidaamka dowlad dhexe, laguse magacaabay federaal.

Inta aan ogahay, ma jirin gogol ay qeybaha kala duwan ee reer Koonfur-Galbeed iskugu yimaadeen oo ay uga doodeen, kana soo saareen aragtidooda ku aaddan dowlad dhiska Soomaaliya. Haddaba, waxaan qabaa in la gaaray waqtigii ay wax-garadka Koonfur-Galbeed ee hadda jooga (mucaarad iyo muxaafad) ay iskugu iman lahaayeen gogol iyo goleyaal waaweyn, ayna kaga doodayaan masaalixda iyo mabaadi’da dowlad-dhiska ee ay rabaan inay xaqiijiyaan.

Dowlad-dhisku wuxuu ka dhexeeyaa Soomaalida oo dhan. Sidaa darteed, waa lagama maarmaan in ay reer Koonfur-Galbeed ay hormuudka ka mid noqdaan oo aysan sugin Villa Soomaaliya ama meelo kale wax lagu soo karkariyey.

Reer Koonfur-Galbeed maxay ka aaminsan yihiiih arrimaha waaweyn ee la xiriira heshiis-siyaasadeedka dalka? Maxay ka qabaan federaalieynta, nidaamka xukunka dalka, demoqraadiyeynta, iyo asteynta awoodaha heerarka kala duwan.

Uga dambeyntii, waxaan ugu baaqayaa in Villa Soomaaliya iyo mucaaradkuba ay siiyaan reer Koonfur-Galbeed fursad ay si miyir-qabta iskaga waraystaan arrimaha masiiriga ah. Waa ii muuqataa inay madaxda dowladda Soomaaliya ay degdegsan yihiin oo ay rabaan in rabitaanka Villa Soomaaliya si dhaqso ah looga hirgeliyo Koonfur-Galbeed.

Waxaanse kula talin lahaa in madaxweynuhu uu fiiriyo mustaqbalka fog iyo saameynta uu go’aanklisu ku yeelan doono xiriirka muwaadiniinta iyo qabaa’ilka Soomaaliyeed ee ay danta iyo dalku ka dhexeeyaan.

Waxaan u rajaynayaa reer Koonfur-Galbeed inay helaan gogol ay ku tashadaan, ayna ku gaaraan talo gobolka iyo dalka Soomaaliyeedba badbaado u noqon karta.

Afyare Cabdi Cilmi waa cilmi-baare ka tirsan City University of Mogadishu.